Conditions are ripe for Reform to do well in 2026 Welsh elections and even beat Tories to second place

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Within hours of their landslide victory this summer, Labour MPs had already begun discussing how to counter the threat from Reform UK. Nigel Farage’s party had won five parliamentary constituencies and 14.3% of the vote. Keir Starmer’s strategists see this resurgence of Faragism as arguably their biggest electoral challenge .

That threat has been made more acute by Donald Trump’s victory in the US this week. Buoyed up by his ally’s triumph, Farage has set his sights on a new UK target: the Senedd elections in the spring of 2026.